LIMA, Nov 19 - India and China’s ability to resist the global economic slowdown will greatly influence whether the crisis drags the world into a depression, a top Pacific Rim trade community economist said Tuesday.
“If China and India come through this crisis with very good growth rates that would be very important for the rise of global economy,” Bob Buckle told reporters on the eve of a summit of the 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.
The International Monetary Fund has said emerging economies — which include China and India — will account for the world’s entire projected 2.2 per cent overall growth next year.
It estimates rich nations’ economies will together grow by just 0.1 per cent this year while the developing world will grow by 5 per cent.
China’s economy has grown feverishly, in the double digits annually for 15 years while India’s has grown at slightly less than 10 per cent. Together, the two countries have about 40 per cent of the world’s people.
The IMF readjusted its growth estimates last month, projecting that China’s economy would grow 9.7 per cent this year and 8.5 per cent in 2009. India’s is estimated to grow 7.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively.
In both countries, the production drop would be far softer than rich countries. The economy of the United States, where the crisis originated, is projected to shrink to -0.7 per cent next year with euro-zone similar.
China, India, Russia and Brazil currently have the world’s largest cash reserves and at last weekend’s G-20 summit in Washington they demanded a greater say in world economic and political forums.
Of the four, only China and Russia are Apec members. But the host of last week’s summit, US President George W. Bush will be in Lima to work with them on finding a way out of the crisis.
Apec has just three Latin American members and their projected growth rates for 2009 are Peru with 9 per cent, possibly the region’s highest, Chile with 4 percent and Mexico with about 1 per cent.
There is a prevailing opinion among Apec’s members, whose economies account for 60 per cent of global economic growth, that all trade protection should be removed, said Buckle, a New Zealander who heads its economic committee.
“The reasons for this I think are very clear. If economies do embark on protectionist measures that tends to have a more negative effect on the global situation,” he said. “ We saw that in the 1930’s when the economies responded to the international crisis at that time by putting up trade barriers.”
At last weekend’s Washington summit, the G-20 presidents (of rich and major developing nations) agreed to take whatever action necessary to stabilise the financial system. - AP
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